Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 6419 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 6419 SHV 06:00 → DFW 07:14 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 6410 SHV 18:48 → DFW 20:12 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6419 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 06:00	DFW 07:14	11%	5%	1.6%	91%
AA 4009 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SHV 09:55	DFW 11:09	13%	3%	1.6%	92%
MQ 3479 Envoy	SHV 14:26	DFW 15:36	18%	5%	1.4%	no record
OO 6331 SkyWest	SHV 11:45	DFW 13:00	19%	10%	1.2%	no record
OO 6341 SkyWest	SHV 08:16	DFW 09:31	20%	8%	1.5%	no record
AA 6410 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 18:48	DFW 20:12	25%	9%	1.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON