Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 73 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day AS 73 SIT 06:03 → JNU 06:46 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 67 SIT 19:30 → JNU 20:12 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 73 Alaska Flight history →	SIT 06:03	JNU 06:46	11%	4%	2.8%	90%
AS 7004 Alaska	SIT 19:05	JNU 19:59	21%	5%	5.0%	no record
AS 67 Alaska Flight history →	SIT 19:30	JNU 20:12	23%	4%	5.3%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON