Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Nashville on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3793 Southwest	SJC 12:05	BNA 18:30	22%	6%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144	7h 16m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	3h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612	9h 15m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121	8h 35m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	2h 07m Los Angeles	LAX 18:31 → BNA 00:33 +1DL 858	7h 34m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815	10h 19m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	58m Atlanta	ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142	6h 51m	92%	72%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → BNA 18:13DL 2205	6h 28m	93%	71%
Alaska Details →	SJC 06:13 → SEA 08:20AS 762	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 09:28 → BNA 15:40AS 1532	7h 27m	84%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON