Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1137 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1137 SJC 10:00 → BOI 12:47 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 5033 SJC 16:00 → BOI 18:49 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1137 Southwest	SJC 10:00	BOI 12:47	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 3413 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 19:48	BOI 22:33	14%	8%	0.6%	87%
WN 5033 Southwest	SJC 16:00	BOI 18:49	25%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON