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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 1h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 35m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 38m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 8h 49m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 46m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 7h 46m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850 7h 55m 96% 68%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 8h 12m 95% 65%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:01 → DCA 19:20AA 2520 10h 19m 98% 61%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 07:54 → SEA 10:01AS 1304 3h 45m Seattle SEA 13:46 → DCA 21:59AS 2 11h 05m 99% 58%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:09 → DFW 17:50AA 2046 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 8h 50m 91% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:09 → DFW 17:50AA 2046 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59AA 2752 7h 50m 74% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON