Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3802 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 3802 SJC 06:05 → DEN 09:37 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3426 SJC 17:40 → DEN 21:13 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3802 Southwest	SJC 06:05	DEN 09:37	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2013 United	SJC 08:47	DEN 12:40	9%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1937 Southwest	SJC 10:54	DEN 14:28	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1035 United Flight history →	SJC 18:37	DEN 22:16	21%	8%	0.6%	80%
UA 2076 United	SJC 12:59	DEN 16:55	25%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 3804 Southwest	SJC 13:55	DEN 17:28	29%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 3426 Southwest	SJC 17:40	DEN 21:13	32%	14%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON