Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:10, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	7h 46m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	SJC 09:46 → PDX 11:31AS 2256 · flown by Horizon	3h 22m Portland	PDX 14:53 → EWR 22:57AS 1398	10h 11m	98%	73%
Alaska Details →	SJC 16:48 → SEA 18:55AS 521	3h 46m Seattle	SEA 22:41 → EWR 06:40 +1AS 395	10h 52m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	7h 49m	97%	68%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	9h 18m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866	8h 33m	98%	66%
Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	3h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	9h 59m	95%	66%
Alaska Details →	SJC 06:13 → SEA 08:20AS 762	1h 38m Seattle	SEA 09:58 → EWR 17:58AS 292	8h 45m	97%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SJC 12:03 → PDX 13:48AS 2188 · flown by Horizon	1h 05m Portland	PDX 14:53 → EWR 22:57AS 1398	7h 54m	73%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON