tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 928 at 12:05, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 928 Southwest SJC 12:05 GEG 14:17 11% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SJC 06:13 → SEA 08:20AS 762 1h 35m Seattle SEA 09:55 → GEG 11:00AS 2200 · flown by Horizon 4h 47m 97% 87%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 09:46 → PDX 11:31AS 2256 · flown by Horizon 2h 57m Portland PDX 14:28 → GEG 15:43AS 743 5h 57m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452 6h 12m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 12:03 → PDX 13:48AS 2188 · flown by Horizon 3h 42m Portland PDX 17:30 → GEG 18:44AS 452 6h 41m 98% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311 1h 52m Seattle SEA 14:22 → GEG 15:25AS 2074 · flown by Horizon 5h 06m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503 6h 23m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:07 → PHX 08:20AA 1358 2h 02m Phoenix PHX 10:22 → GEG 13:22AA 540 7h 15m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 1h 45m Seattle SEA 15:40 → GEG 16:55DL 3857 · flown by SkyWest 5h 20m 94% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SJC 14:55 → SEA 17:09DL 3789 · flown by SkyWest 50m Seattle SEA 17:59 → GEG 19:15DL 3832 · flown by SkyWest 4h 20m 72% 54%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:09 → DFW 17:50AA 2046 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:47 → GEG 20:45AA 2757 8h 36m 69% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON