Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 838 Alaska	SJC 06:59	HNL 09:44	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3829 Southwest	SJC 13:50	HNL 16:37	22%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SJC 07:00 → OGG 09:21AS 953	2h 01m Kahului	OGG 11:22 → HNL 12:16AS 1085	8h 16m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	11h 19m	98%	76%
American Details →	SJC 06:07 → PHX 08:20AA 1358	1h 55m Phoenix	PHX 10:15 → HNL 14:09AA 693	11h 02m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	2h 13m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	9h 23m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 16:36 → HNL 19:53DL 419	11h 18m	97%	68%
Alaska Details →	SJC 06:08 → SEA 08:14AS 762	3h 57m Seattle	SEA 12:11 → HNL 15:22AS 899	12h 14m	100%	60%
Alaska Details →	SJC 16:47 → SEA 18:53AS 521	1h 57m Seattle	SEA 20:50 → HNL 23:49AS 268	10h 02m	97%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON