tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 9h 19m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 9h 17m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 2h 11m Los Angeles LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59DL 1287 7h 00m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 16:23 → IAH 17:35DL 1131 9h 00m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299 6h 08m 92% 67%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 06:13 → SEA 08:20AS 762 2h 32m Seattle SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16AS 438 9h 03m 100% 59%
AmericanDetails → SJC 14:36 → DFW 20:03AA 2834 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → IAH 00:14 +1AA 3023 7h 38m 96% 57%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254 1h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 6h 10m 87% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 14:36 → DFW 20:03AA 2834 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209 5h 48m 73% 36%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 07:54 → SEA 10:01AS 1304 51m Seattle SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16AS 438 7h 22m 53% 31%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:09 → DFW 17:50AA 2046 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 5h 45m 55% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON