Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SJC 07:00 → OGG 09:21AS 953	1h 12m Kahului	OGG 10:33 → KOA 11:26AS 1030	7h 26m	94%	83%
American Details →	SJC 06:07 → PHX 08:20AA 1358	2h 20m Phoenix	PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663	10h 59m	96%	76%
Alaska Details →	SJC 06:08 → SEA 08:14AS 762	1h 45m Seattle	SEA 09:59 → KOA 13:08AS 709	10h 00m	97%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON