Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2336 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 2336 SJC 06:25 → LAS 07:59 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2246 SJC 18:50 → LAS 20:24 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2336 Southwest	SJC 06:25	LAS 07:59	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4292 Southwest	SJC 08:02	LAS 09:36	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 208 Southwest	SJC 09:57	LAS 11:31	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1727 Southwest	SJC 10:47	LAS 12:21	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
G4 4103 Allegiant	SJC 00:48	LAS 02:10	19%	8%	1.3%	no record
WN 1487 Southwest	SJC 11:47	LAS 13:21	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 4104 Frontier Flight history →	SJC 22:41	LAS 00:24	25%	11%	1.2%	78%
WN 2186 Southwest	SJC 22:20	LAS 23:55	32%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 2356 Southwest	SJC 13:55	LAS 15:29	34%	12%	0.6%	no record
F9 1590 Frontier Flight history →	SJC 14:12	LAS 15:50	36%	14%	1.0%	77%worse than usual
WN 3814 Southwest	SJC 21:25	LAS 23:00	37%	15%	0.6%	no record
WN 4490 Southwest	SJC 16:25	LAS 17:59	39%	14%	0.6%	no record
WN 2246 Southwest	SJC 18:50	LAS 20:24	41%	17%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON