tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Seattle, leaving 17:55, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:55 → SEA 20:13DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Seattle SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448 10h 45m 100% 79%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311 2h 58m Seattle SEA 15:28 → MCO 23:55AS 420 10h 36m 100% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 16:48 → SEA 18:55AS 521 2h 34m Seattle SEA 21:29 → MCO 05:52 +1AS 390 10h 04m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 2h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:23 → MCO 18:01DL 2024 9h 01m 98% 69%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 10h 13m 99% 68%
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260 3h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 9h 59m 95% 68%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162 8h 18m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → MCO 23:58DL 2309 7h 48m 89% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254 52m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → MCO 23:55DL 2056 7h 15m 71% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON