tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:40, is the safest bet: 32% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2740 United SJC 06:27 ORD 12:39 11% 5% 0.8% no record
UA 1650 United SJC 14:06 ORD 20:32 36% 23% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 9h 13m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Seattle SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108 10h 03m 99% 66%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:45 → PHX 14:46AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 3h 12m Phoenix PHX 17:58 → ORD 23:37AA 2569 8h 52m 100% 60%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 15:36 → ORD 17:17DL 1306 8h 57m 99% 58%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 8h 37m 97% 57%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:07 → PHX 08:20AA 1358 1h 56m Phoenix PHX 10:16 → ORD 16:06AA 332 7h 59m 96% 57%
AmericanDetails → SJC 19:37 → PHX 21:39AA 2094 2h 03m Phoenix PHX 23:42 → ORD 05:06 +1AA 2059 7h 29m 79% 56%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → ORD 21:52DL 1563 6h 42m 99% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 14:36 → DFW 20:03AA 2834 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:00 → ORD 23:39AA 2346 7h 03m 63% 35%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413 5h 49m 67% 32%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 20:44 → SEA 22:50AS 745 51m Seattle SEA 23:41 → ORD 05:41 +1AS 285 6h 57m 45% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON