Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4391 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4391 SJC 06:30 → PDX 08:26 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3831 SJC 21:50 → PDX 23:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4391 Southwest	SJC 06:30	PDX 08:26	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 3340 SkyWest	SJC 07:57	PDX 09:56	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 393 Alaska	SJC 14:14	PDX 16:07	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3910 Southwest	SJC 13:55	PDX 15:50	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 400 Alaska	SJC 18:57	PDX 20:50	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3831 Southwest	SJC 21:50	PDX 23:45	22%	9%	0.6%	no record
AS 2256 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 09:46	PDX 11:31	4%	4%	1.9%	96%
AS 2188 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 12:03	PDX 13:48	33%	14%	1.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON