Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3832 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 3832 SJC 06:45 → PHX 08:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2094 SJC 19:37 → PHX 21:39 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3832 Southwest	SJC 06:45	PHX 08:45	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3500 Southwest	SJC 08:18	PHX 10:18	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1358 American Flight history →	SJC 06:07	PHX 08:20	9%	4%	0.8%	97%
WN 3834 Southwest	SJC 10:51	PHX 12:50	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3940 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SJC 12:45	PHX 14:46	16%	4%	0.9%	97%worse than usual
WN 3520 Southwest	SJC 16:05	PHX 18:04	28%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 2279 Southwest	SJC 18:30	PHX 20:30	30%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 439 Southwest	SJC 21:10	PHX 23:09	31%	15%	0.7%	no record
AA 2094 American Flight history →	SJC 19:37	PHX 21:39	42%	13%	0.9%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON