tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1261 at 16:20, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1261 Southwest SJC 16:20 RNO 17:29 18% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 6h 09m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 3h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 7h 07m 97% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 09:38 → PDX 11:38AS 2274 · flown by Horizon 3h 04m Portland PDX 14:42 → RNO 16:22AS 2087 · flown by Horizon 6h 44m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260 3h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607 6h 46m 95% 75%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:07 → PHX 08:20AA 1358 2h 02m Phoenix PHX 10:22 → RNO 12:22AA 1437 6h 15m 96% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 06:13 → SEA 08:20AS 762 3h 25m Seattle SEA 11:45 → RNO 13:31AS 601 7h 18m 100% 65%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:45 → PHX 14:47AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 2h 17m Phoenix PHX 17:04 → RNO 19:07AA 2869 6h 22m 100% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → SJC 14:12 → LAS 15:50F9 1590 51m Las Vegas LAS 16:41 → RNO 18:15F9 4241 4h 03m 55% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON