Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2697 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 2697 SJC 06:20 → SAN 07:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2754 SJC 18:45 → SAN 20:21 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2697 Southwest	SJC 06:20	SAN 07:55	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3328 Southwest	SJC 08:45	SAN 10:20	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 1307 Alaska	SJC 06:33	SAN 08:06	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 3408 SkyWest	SJC 09:17	SAN 10:55	22%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 375 Southwest	SJC 10:15	SAN 11:50	27%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 3653 Southwest	SJC 12:15	SAN 13:50	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 4343 Southwest	SJC 11:15	SAN 12:50	29%	8%	0.7%	no record
OO 3359 SkyWest	SJC 11:14	SAN 12:52	30%	9%	1.0%	no record
OO 3312 SkyWest	SJC 20:08	SAN 21:46	30%	12%	1.1%	no record
AS 432 Alaska	SJC 15:51	SAN 17:24	32%	11%	0.8%	no record
QX 2393 Horizon	SJC 17:15	SAN 18:54	32%	8%	2.4%	no record
WN 3237 Southwest	SJC 13:40	SAN 15:16	34%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 3872 Southwest	SJC 15:10	SAN 16:45	36%	12%	0.8%	no record
WN 965 Southwest	SJC 19:45	SAN 21:20	37%	16%	0.7%	no record
WN 484 Southwest	SJC 16:00	SAN 17:36	38%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 1935 Southwest	SJC 21:40	SAN 23:16	41%	16%	0.7%	no record
WN 4347 Southwest	SJC 18:15	SAN 19:51	42%	16%	0.7%	no record
WN 2754 Southwest	SJC 18:45	SAN 20:21	45%	15%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON