Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1185 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 1185 SJC 06:40 → SEA 08:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 521 SJC 16:48 → SEA 18:55 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1185 Southwest	SJC 06:40	SEA 08:49	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4041 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 07:20	SEA 09:42	10%	4%	0.6%	95%
DL 3736 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 11:35	SEA 13:55	13%	6%	0.8%	92%
DL 4100 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 20:59	SEA 23:23	17%	7%	0.7%	88%
AS 762 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 06:13	SEA 08:20	20%	4%	0.8%	78%
DL 3789 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:55	SEA 17:09	20%	8%	0.7%	85%
DL 3897 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 17:55	SEA 20:13	26%	9%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
AS 1311 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 10:19	SEA 12:30	26%	5%	0.9%	91%worse than usual
AS 659 Alaska	SJC 13:27	SEA 15:34	31%	6%	1.0%	no record
AS 1304 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 07:54	SEA 10:01	33%	5%	0.8%	79%worse than usual
WN 1257 Southwest	SJC 14:55	SEA 17:04	34%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 3703 Southwest	SJC 20:20	SEA 22:28	35%	13%	0.6%	no record
AS 745 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 20:44	SEA 22:50	37%	9%	0.8%	83%worse than usual
AS 521 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 16:48	SEA 18:55	38%	9%	1.0%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON