tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, B6 276 at 08:26, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 276 JetBlue Flight history → SJU 08:26 BDL 12:54 18% 6% 0.9% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739 8h 46m 99% 80%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 04:57 → MCO 08:09B6 234 2h 26m Orlando MCO 10:35 → BDL 13:28B6 438 8h 31m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011 9h 12m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:58 → ATL 16:59DL 1930 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 20:31 → BDL 22:56DL 2765 9h 58m 100% 69%
FrontierDetails → SJU 06:54 → MCO 10:13F9 2981 1h 16m Orlando MCO 11:29 → BDL 14:26F9 1684 7h 32m 89% 66%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 11:11 → MCO 14:23B6 1334 1h 47m Orlando MCO 16:10 → BDL 19:02B6 138 7h 51m 90% 59%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 1h 22m Charlotte CLT 21:01 → BDL 23:00AA 2763 7h 20m 89% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJU 16:47 → MIA 19:41AA 967 1h 03m Miami MIA 20:44 → BDL 23:55AA 1272 7h 08m 66% 42%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154 1h 13m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → BDL 23:59B6 460 6h 59m 68% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON