tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1780 at 14:08 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1780 Delta Flight history → SJU 14:08 BOS 18:19 22% 8% 1.2% 80%
B6 462 JetBlue Flight history → SJU 20:07 BOS 00:13 40% 19% 0.9% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 3h 25m Newark EWR 08:35 → BOS 09:51UA 1110 8h 51m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30DL 1854 3h 00m New York JFK 14:30 → BOS 16:08DL 5595 · flown by Republic 8h 33m 98% 81%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 04:57 → MCO 08:10B6 234 2h 27m Orlando MCO 10:37 → BOS 13:42B6 552 8h 45m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726 9h 14m 99% 80%
FrontierDetails → SJU 03:10 → MCO 06:10F9 1823 1h 35m Orlando MCO 07:45 → BOS 10:52F9 1978 7h 42m 92% 79%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 1h 40m Houston IAH 12:33 → BOS 17:46UA 1226 10h 46m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → BOS 23:28DL 300 8h 46m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024 1h 14m Dulles IAD 22:10 → BOS 23:59UA 755 7h 04m 92% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → SJU 10:31 → JFK 14:42B6 904 51m New York JFK 15:33 → BOS 17:00B6 618 6h 29m 72% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON