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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Buffalo on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 8h 33m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30DL 1854 1h 59m New York JFK 13:29 → BUF 15:09DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 7h 34m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 9h 17m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 1h 26m Charlotte CLT 21:05 → BUF 22:51AA 703 7h 11m 91% 65%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 10:31 → JFK 14:42B6 904 2h 04m New York JFK 16:46 → BUF 18:26B6 1202 7h 55m 94% 65%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 14:05 → FLL 16:47B6 1454 3h 07m Fort Lauderdale FLL 19:54 → BUF 23:03B6 866 8h 58m 95% 61%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 11:11 → MCO 14:24B6 1334 3h 35m Orlando MCO 17:59 → BUF 20:50B6 1586 9h 39m 97% 57%
FrontierDetails → SJU 10:36 → MCO 13:53F9 2867 1h 11m Orlando MCO 15:04 → BUF 17:55F9 1692 7h 19m 85% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON