Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 783 at 15:40, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 783 American Flight history →	SJU 15:40	CLT 19:39	21%	5%	1.5%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 01m	95%	80%
United Details →	SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644	1h 17m Houston	IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa	9h 02m	95%	79%
Frontier Details →	SJU 00:53 → PHL 05:01F9 2695	2h 59m Philadelphia	PHL 08:00 → CLT 09:56F9 2387	9h 03m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	SJU 12:58 → ATL 16:59DL 1930	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → CLT 20:11DL 2132	7h 13m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	SJU 14:08 → BOS 18:19DL 1780	1h 21m Boston	BOS 19:40 → CLT 22:20DL 5807 · flown by Republic	8h 12m	88%	71%
American Details →	SJU 06:00 → MIA 08:54AA 3089	59m Miami	MIA 09:53 → CLT 12:01AA 1398	6h 01m	90%	70%
Delta Details →	SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 21:22 → CLT 22:32DL 8853	7h 50m	98%	70%
Frontier Details →	SJU 06:54 → MCO 10:13F9 2981	2h 58m Orlando	MCO 13:11 → CLT 15:02F9 2452	8h 08m	95%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154	1h 13m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:55 → CLT 23:05B6 2149	6h 05m	70%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON