tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Newark, leaving 01:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1368 United Flight history → SJU 13:40 DEN 18:15 26% 6% 1.2% 87%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 2h 42m Newark EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:03UA 1758 11h 03m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024 1h 27m Dulles IAD 22:23 → DEN 00:30 +1UA 495 9h 35m 95% 79%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 05:01 → JFK 08:54B6 2904 3h 12m New York JFK 12:06 → DEN 14:19B6 1497 11h 18m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957 8h 30m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51UA 668 3h 18m Houston IAH 22:09 → DEN 23:34UA 685 10h 39m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 1h 40m Houston IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168 9h 17m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → SJU 06:00 → MIA 08:54AA 3089 58m Miami MIA 09:52 → DEN 12:02AA 2436 8h 02m 90% 69%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 3h 09m Charlotte CLT 22:48 → DEN 00:17 +1AA 1659 10h 37m 98% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJU 16:50 → MIA 19:39AA 967 56m Miami MIA 20:35 → DEN 22:48AA 1292 7h 58m 62% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON