tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3159 American Flight history → SJU 16:27 DFW 20:51 29% 8% 1.0% 52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 1h 47m Newark EWR 06:57 → DFW 09:39UA 1494 9h 39m 91% 82%
FrontierDetails → SJU 03:10 → MCO 06:10F9 1823 2h 55m Orlando MCO 09:05 → DFW 11:04F9 2885 8h 54m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 1h 12m Houston IAH 12:05 → DFW 13:34UA 4024 · flown by Mesa 7h 34m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51UA 668 2h 46m Houston IAH 21:37 → DFW 22:59UA 1183 9h 04m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921 9h 15m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:58 → ATL 16:59DL 1930 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:50 → DFW 22:11DL 3161 10h 13m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818 7h 23m 89% 65%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 3h 08m Charlotte CLT 22:47 → DFW 00:30 +1AA 1256 9h 50m 98% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → SJU 00:53 → PHL 05:01F9 2695 53m Philadelphia PHL 05:54 → DFW 08:34F9 3985 8h 41m 67% 51%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154 1h 17m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:59 → DFW 23:16B6 2279 7h 16m 72% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON