tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Newark, leaving 01:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Detroit on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 3h 36m Newark EWR 08:46 → DTW 10:49UA 3700 · flown by Republic 9h 49m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 3h 05m Houston IAH 13:58 → DTW 17:59UA 6131 · flown by Mesa 10h 59m 99% 87%
FrontierDetails → SJU 03:10 → MCO 06:10F9 1823 2h 57m Orlando MCO 09:07 → DTW 11:55F9 2529 8h 45m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30DL 1854 1h 26m New York JFK 12:56 → DTW 14:46DL 1654 7h 11m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → DTW 15:55DL 1031 8h 25m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024 1h 31m Dulles IAD 22:27 → DTW 00:15 +1UA 2846 7h 20m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:58 → ATL 16:59DL 1930 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 19:11 → DTW 21:11DL 1262 8h 13m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:08 → BOS 18:19DL 1780 2h 46m Boston BOS 21:05 → DTW 23:21DL 2896 9h 13m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJU 16:50 → MIA 19:39AA 967 1h 06m Miami MIA 20:45 → DTW 23:56AA 2649 7h 06m 71% 44%
FrontierDetails → SJU 17:15 → ATL 21:24F9 2871 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:35 → DTW 00:40 +1F9 1264 7h 25m 66% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON