Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2219 at 01:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 2219 SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 1990 SJU 14:56 → EWR 19:12 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2219 United Flight history →	SJU 01:00	EWR 05:10	15%	5%	1.1%	85%
UA 2036 United Flight history →	SJU 18:45	EWR 22:55	22%	8%	1.1%	84%
UA 1173 United Flight history →	SJU 13:25	EWR 17:39	26%	9%	1.4%	66%
B6 1990 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 14:56	EWR 19:12	36%	14%	1.9%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON