tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2024 at 16:55, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2024 United Flight history → SJU 16:55 IAD 20:56 12% 5% 0.8% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 12:55 → IAD 14:39DL 2135 7h 09m 98% 84%
FrontierDetails → SJU 03:10 → MCO 06:10F9 1823 1h 58m Orlando MCO 08:08 → IAD 10:42F9 4230 7h 32m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 3h 30m Houston IAH 14:23 → IAD 18:49UA 688 11h 49m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 2h 56m Charlotte CLT 22:35 → IAD 00:07 +1AA 2608 8h 27m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 50m Newark EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366 6h 22m 78% 73%
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:58 → ATL 16:59DL 1930 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309 8h 05m 100% 70%
UnitedDetails → SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51UA 668 1h 25m Houston IAH 20:16 → IAD 00:13 +1UA 1968 9h 18m 94% 68%
DeltaDetails → SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 6h 51m 89% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SJU 13:25 → EWR 17:39UA 1173 57m Newark EWR 18:36 → IAD 19:59UA 3934 6h 34m 71% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON