tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1644 United Flight history → SJU 07:00 IAH 10:53 7% 3% 1.0% 96%
UA 668 United Flight history → SJU 14:55 IAH 18:51 15% 5% 1.8% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 2h 49m Newark EWR 07:59 → IAH 10:44UA 332 10h 44m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 03m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024 1h 40m Dulles IAD 22:36 → IAH 00:50 +1UA 1463 8h 55m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:58 → ATL 16:59DL 1930 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284 9h 26m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946 59m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 7h 07m 86% 64%
UnitedDetails → SJU 13:25 → EWR 17:39UA 1173 3h 11m Newark EWR 20:50 → IAH 23:43UA 2425 11h 18m 95% 63%
UnitedDetails → SJU 13:40 → DEN 18:15UA 1368 2h 13m Denver DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419 11h 19m 96% 61%
AmericanDetails → SJU 16:27 → DFW 20:51AA 3159 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → IAH 00:14 +1AA 3023 8h 47m 95% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → SJU 03:10 → MCO 06:10F9 1823 50m Orlando MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:45F9 1417 6h 35m 69% 53%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154 1h 18m Fort Lauderdale FLL 21:00 → IAH 23:02B6 2779 7h 02m 72% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON