Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4962 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 4962 SJU 05:00 → MCO 08:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1745 SJU 15:49 → MCO 19:07 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4962 Southwest	SJU 05:00	MCO 08:10	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3859 Southwest	SJU 06:35	MCO 09:44	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3860 Southwest	SJU 09:50	MCO 13:00	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
B6 234 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 04:57	MCO 08:10	12%	7%	1.2%	83%
F9 2981 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 06:54	MCO 10:13	14%	5%	2.0%	87%
B6 1134 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 08:26	MCO 11:39	14%	6%	1.2%	70%
F9 2867 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 10:36	MCO 13:53	20%	7%	2.2%	88%
B6 1334 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 11:11	MCO 14:24	20%	8%	1.7%	73%
WN 3861 Southwest	SJU 13:10	MCO 16:19	20%	8%	1.8%	no record
F9 1823 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 03:10	MCO 06:10	21%	7%	2.0%	81%
WN 3864 Southwest	SJU 20:25	MCO 23:33	22%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 4960 Southwest	SJU 15:05	MCO 18:14	24%	8%	1.6%	no record
WN 2407 Southwest	SJU 16:55	MCO 20:03	26%	9%	1.3%	no record
B6 2134 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 18:41	MCO 21:52	31%	12%	1.3%	63%
B6 934 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 14:45	MCO 17:59	32%	12%	2.2%	81%worse than usual
F9 2249 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 18:09	MCO 21:21	32%	10%	2.0%	86%worse than usual
F9 1745 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 15:49	MCO 19:07	33%	12%	2.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON