Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3089 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 3089 SJU 06:00 → MIA 08:54 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 1734 SJU 15:06 → MIA 18:00 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3089 American Flight history →	SJU 06:00	MIA 08:54	10%	4%	1.3%	97%
F9 3377 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 03:02	MIA 06:00	20%	8%	1.4%	81%
AA 3033 American	SJU 10:16	MIA 13:11	21%	6%	4.7%	no record
AA 1341 American Flight history →	SJU 11:51	MIA 14:44	27%	8%	6.2%	82%
F9 2283 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 11:48	MIA 14:44	30%	10%	5.5%	77%
AA 967 American Flight history →	SJU 16:50	MIA 19:39	37%	14%	1.7%	63%
AA 1734 American	SJU 15:06	MIA 18:00	38%	13%	4.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON