Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Norfolk on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:14DL 2925	6h 44m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30DL 1854	3h 38m New York	JFK 15:08 → ORF 16:33DL 5395 · flown by Endeavor	8h 58m	98%	77%
United Details →	SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024	1h 39m Dulles	IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44UA 2677	6h 49m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 23:45 → ORF 01:19 +1DL 2338	7h 29m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	SJU 13:10 → JFK 17:19DL 1966	3h 53m New York	JFK 21:12 → ORF 22:37DL 5326 · flown by Endeavor	9h 27m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	SJU 12:58 → ATL 16:59DL 1930	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → ORF 21:42DL 2984	8h 44m	100%	69%
Delta Details →	SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 20:42 → ORF 22:28DL 2731	7h 46m	97%	64%
American Details →	SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → ORF 23:45AA 2674	8h 05m	98%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	SJU 15:49 → MCO 19:07F9 1745	1h 05m Orlando	MCO 20:12 → ORF 23:03F9 2288	7h 14m	69%	45%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154	50m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:32 → ORF 22:57B6 1800	5h 57m	52%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON