tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Providence on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314 8h 59m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064 9h 15m 98% 76%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 08:26 → MCO 11:38B6 1134 2h 25m Orlando MCO 14:03 → PVD 16:57B6 1075 8h 31m 97% 64%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 14:05 → FLL 16:47B6 1454 3h 44m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:31 → PVD 23:41B6 1196 9h 36m 97% 60%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 59m Charlotte CLT 20:38 → PVD 22:56AA 2318 7h 16m 77% 54%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154 49m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:31 → PVD 23:41B6 1196 6h 41m 51% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON