Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 124 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day OO 124 SLC 09:40 → ABQ 11:24 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3726 SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 124 SkyWest	SLC 09:40	ABQ 11:24	8%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 3729 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 20:45	ABQ 22:30	20%	6%	1.8%	90%worse than usual
DL 3726 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 17:25	ABQ 19:12	23%	9%	1.0%	92%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON