Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:10, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 39% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	3h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	11h 50m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	SLC 12:26 → PDX 13:31AS 3430 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Portland	PDX 14:32 → ANC 17:21AS 1406	6h 55m	90%	72%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874	1h 33m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922	7h 27m	93%	69%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	2h 55m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → ANC 20:14DL 2367	8h 54m	97%	68%
American Details →	SLC 08:00 → DFW 11:47AA 2195	3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:08 → ANC 19:09AA 399	13h 09m	96%	68%
Alaska Details →	SLC 09:42 → SEA 10:46AS 719	3h 16m Seattle	SEA 14:02 → ANC 16:32AS 1381	8h 50m	100%	67%
Delta Details →	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411	9h 38m	84%	67%
Alaska Details →	SLC 06:01 → SEA 07:10AS 3344 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Seattle	SEA 08:30 → ANC 11:14AS 1332	7h 13m	96%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	51m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	6h 50m	63%	45%
Alaska Details →	SLC 16:00 → SEA 17:16AS 734	51m Seattle	SEA 18:07 → ANC 20:41AS 1408	6h 41m	45%	29%
Alaska Details →	SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 21:01 → ANC 23:33AS 711	6h 49m	39%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON