Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 907 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 907 SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 905 SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 907 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:00	ATL 12:44	10%	3%	0.7%	95%
DL 897 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:10	ATL 13:54	13%	4%	0.7%	92%
DL 835 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:55	ATL 15:39	17%	5%	0.7%	86%
DL 8770 Delta Flight history →	SLC 00:47	ATL 06:40	17%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 885 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:00	ATL 16:44	22%	5%	0.7%	84%
DL 906 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:35	ATL 19:22	25%	7%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
DL 912 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:35	ATL 05:14	25%	5%	1.0%	88%worse than usual
DL 875 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:31	ATL 21:25	31%	9%	0.8%	82%worse than usual
DL 905 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:55	ATL 23:58	33%	10%	1.1%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON