Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 102 at 10:54 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day OO 102 SLC 10:54 → BIL 12:28 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1340 SLC 21:25 → BIL 22:50 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 102 SkyWest	SLC 10:54	BIL 12:28	9%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 3828 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 16:25	BIL 17:52	19%	7%	1.2%	89%
DL 1340 Delta Flight history →	SLC 21:25	BIL 22:50	29%	14%	2.3%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON