Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2214 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2214 SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2317 SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2214 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:25	BNA 13:46	14%	4%	0.7%	91%
WN 3868 Southwest	SLC 11:45	BNA 16:05	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2205 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:45	BNA 18:13	23%	7%	0.8%	85%
DL 2317 Delta Flight history →	SLC 18:45	BNA 23:05	33%	12%	2.8%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON