Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1290 at 07:48 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 1290 SLC 07:48 → BUR 08:57 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 339 SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1290 Delta	SLC 07:48	BUR 08:57	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 3933 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:45	BUR 11:54	14%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 3693 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:05	BUR 16:12	20%	5%	1.0%	93%worse than usual
DL 339 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:50	BUR 21:48	41%	9%	2.1%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON