Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via O'Hare, leaving 06:49, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2070 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:55	CLT 16:52	19%	5%	0.9%	88%
AA 1895 American	SLC 13:13	CLT 19:18	35%	11%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 00:04 → BOS 06:28DL 696	3h 37m Boston	BOS 10:05 → CLT 12:35DL 5630 · flown by Republic	10h 31m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SLC 00:47 → ATL 06:40DL 8770	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190	8h 39m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429	7h 55m	99%	82%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Denver	DEN 09:48 → CLT 15:02UA 2231	7h 47m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	3h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821	8h 49m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	3h 04m Boston	BOS 19:40 → CLT 22:20DL 5807 · flown by Republic	10h 30m	99%	80%
United Details →	SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366	1h 13m Houston	IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa	7h 17m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	7h 44m	95%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	50m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → CLT 21:57DL 2352	6h 07m	62%	46%
United Details →	SLC 12:47 → ORD 16:57UA 1382	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29UA 1748	6h 42m	72%	34%
American Details →	SLC 13:29 → ORD 17:43AA 3258	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689	6h 30m	52%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON