Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 820 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:29	DCA 16:35	20%	6%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 00:04 → BOS 06:28DL 696	2h 47m Boston	BOS 09:15 → DCA 11:07DL 5693 · flown by Republic	9h 03m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SLC 00:47 → ATL 06:40DL 8770	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	8h 40m	100%	88%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Denver	DEN 09:31 → DCA 15:00UA 789	7h 45m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	3h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	8h 09m	99%	78%
United Details →	SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m San Francisco	SFO 08:20 → DCA 16:47UA 1678	8h 42m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	7h 56m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289	3h 31m Detroit	DTW 14:55 → DCA 16:34DL 1454	8h 34m	100%	73%
United Details →	SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366	3h 23m Houston	IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625	9h 46m	98%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SLC 12:47 → ORD 16:57UA 1382	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 18:00 → DCA 21:10UA 1369	6h 23m	60%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON