tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 4105 at 14:56, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4105 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SLC 14:56 EUG 16:01 15% 6% 0.7% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Eugene is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874 2h 28m Seattle SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest 6h 08m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 2h 55m Seattle SEA 15:44 → EUG 17:05DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest 6h 30m 96% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 12:26 → PDX 13:31AS 3430 · flown by SkyWest 59m Portland PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:23AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest 3h 57m 88% 77%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 2h 33m Denver DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318 6h 57m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → SLC 14:28 → DEN 16:11UA 1662 3h 24m Denver DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21UA 1303 7h 53m 94% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SLC 19:37 → PDX 20:41AS 3308 · flown by SkyWest 49m Portland PDX 21:30 → EUG 22:30AS 3043 · flown by SkyWest 3h 53m 52% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON