Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 28–38% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2038 SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2109 SLC 11:47 → EWR 18:22 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2038 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:38	EWR 06:00	28%	9%	1.7%	88%worse than usual
DL 2033 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:29	EWR 16:49	29%	10%	1.1%	83%worse than usual
UA 2109 United	SLC 11:47	EWR 18:22	38%	15%	1.1%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	46m Denver	DEN 07:40 → EWR 13:27UA 2640	6h 12m	87%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON