Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3786 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 3786 SLC 08:05 → FAT 08:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 3774 SLC 20:30 → FAT 21:17 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3786 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 08:05	FAT 08:56	7%	4%	0.6%	97%
DL 3768 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:55	FAT 11:47	11%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 3777 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:43	FAT 16:32	16%	6%	0.9%	95%worse than usual
DL 3774 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 20:30	FAT 21:17	18%	7%	2.2%	94%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON