tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 745 Delta Flight history → SLC 10:45 FLL 17:28 30% 7% 1.0% 82%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 00:47 → ATL 06:40DL 8770 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → FLL 09:59DL 1094 7h 12m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Denver DEN 09:58 → FLL 16:08UA 1214 8h 53m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 3h 32m Denver DEN 13:59 → FLL 20:07UA 1384 9h 37m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289 1h 06m Detroit DTW 12:30 → FLL 15:34DL 1294 7h 34m 94% 72%
DeltaDetails → SLC 00:04 → BOS 06:28DL 696 1h 27m Boston BOS 07:55 → FLL 11:24DL 1401 9h 20m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874 3h 58m Seattle SEA 13:00 → FLL 21:52DL 338 12h 02m 100% 68%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 3h 55m Houston IAH 14:52 → FLL 18:41UA 1424 9h 56m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 3h 11m New York JFK 19:58 → FLL 23:28DL 1414 11h 29m 99% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SLC 18:54 → SFO 20:03UA 5457 · flown by SkyWest 1h 16m San Francisco SFO 21:19 → FLL 05:50 +1UA 2469 8h 56m 75% 54%
UnitedDetails → SLC 12:47 → ORD 16:57UA 1382 1h 08m Chicago ORD 18:05 → FLL 22:15UA 463 7h 28m 65% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON