Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 3801 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day OO 3801 SLC 08:20 → GEG 09:13 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1219 SLC 17:30 → GEG 18:17 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3801 SkyWest	SLC 08:20	GEG 09:13	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1452 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	GEG 12:12	16%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 1503 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:25	GEG 16:08	19%	6%	0.9%	80%
DL 1466 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:15	GEG 23:55	25%	9%	0.8%	82%
DL 1219 Delta	SLC 17:30	GEG 18:17	30%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON