tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 4246 at 09:25, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4246 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SLC 09:25 GJT 10:38 9% 3% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Junction on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Denver DEN 09:35 → GJT 10:44UA 4704 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 2h 42m Denver DEN 11:24 → GJT 12:31UA 1714 5h 31m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → SLC 13:48 → PHX 14:34AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest 1h 16m Phoenix PHX 15:50 → GJT 18:25AA 6491 · flown by SkyWest 4h 37m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Denver DEN 13:25 → GJT 14:40UA 5488 · flown by SkyWest 6h 10m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SLC 14:28 → DEN 16:11UA 1662 3h 14m Denver DEN 19:25 → GJT 20:34UA 431 6h 06m 93% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON