tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 316 Delta Flight history → SLC 11:45 HNL 14:19 21% 6% 1.1% 83%
AS 714 Alaska SLC 09:14 HNL 12:00 25% 5% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 4 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 00:46 → ATL 06:39DL 8770 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 16h 34m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest 2h 01m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 9h 38m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 3h 18m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 12h 13m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → SLC 09:35 → LAX 10:34DL 1095 3h 21m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 11h 08m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → SLC 07:13 → PHX 07:57AA 6327 · flown by SkyWest 2h 18m Phoenix PHX 10:15 → HNL 14:09AA 693 10h 56m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → SLC 09:49 → SFO 11:13UA 5970 · flown by SkyWest 2h 42m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 10h 29m 96% 73%
DeltaDetails → SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841 2h 01m Los Angeles LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443 9h 42m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:30 → HNL 14:26AA 5 13h 26m 99% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:11 → LAX 08:18UA 5408 · flown by SkyWest 47m Los Angeles LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158 8h 42m 61% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON