Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4719 at 12:10, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4719 Southwest	SLC 12:10	HOU 16:18	18%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 00:47 → ATL 06:40DL 8770	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	7h 58m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	8h 22m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 16m	85%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON