Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2366 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2366 SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2514 SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2366 United Flight history →	SLC 06:45	IAH 10:57	10%	4%	0.7%	93%
DL 1532 Delta	SLC 09:29	IAH 13:31	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 497 United Flight history →	SLC 13:07	IAH 17:11	21%	8%	0.8%	81%
OO 5545 SkyWest	SLC 16:23	IAH 20:53	23%	9%	1.3%	no record
DL 1299 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:45	IAH 17:53	25%	8%	0.7%	80%
DL 2514 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:45	IAH 21:50	33%	10%	1.1%	79%worse than usual
UA 6282 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SLC 17:33	IAH 21:50	15%	7%	1.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON